Could we experience an economic funk over an Obamacare repeal?
The repeal of the Affordable Care Act could create serious problems for insurers, healthcare providers, workers and patients, according to a new study.
A repeal of key provisions Obamacare could lead to significant economic disruption and substantial job losses in every state, according to new research from the Milken Institute School of Public Health at the George Washington University and The Commonwealth Fund.
“If key parts of Obamacare—premium tax credits and Medicaid expansions—are repealed in 2019 and there is no replacement plan in place, we project that 2.6 million jobs could be lost nationwide in 2019,” says lead author Leighton Ku, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Health Policy Research and professor of health policy and management at the Milken Institute. “There could be major losses in revenue as well as changes in policies. The health insurance marketplaces could collapse and Medicaid programs would shrink and it is not clear what would take their places.”
Almost 1 million of those jobs would be in healthcare, but the remainder are in other sectors of the economy. In addition, states might find that their economics shrink by $1.5 trillion from 2019 to 2023, according to the study.
“Finally, state and local tax revenues could drop by $48 million over five years, creating problems for them if revenues shrink just as needs rise, due to increases in the number of uninsured and unemployed,” Ku says.
The study, the first nationwide study of its type, examined the impact of a potential January 2019 repeal of two parts of the ACA: the federal premium tax credits that help low- and moderate-income people purchase insurance on the health insurance marketplaces (also known as exchanges) and federal support for Medicaid expansion.
On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump vowed to repeal and replace Obamacare.